This is a video version of this “Bluffer’s Guide” to the post-Garnaut world. Apols for low production values – I am a bit rusty at this. I do hope someone has a cheerful fifth option for a sequel?
Here’s the script, if I were even less audible than I thought…
On May 31, Ross Garnaut presented his final Climate Change report to Prime Minister Gillard. Speaking logically, there’s four options.
If it were accepted as the basis for legislation, and if that legislation became law, and if everything worked just ticky boo, then we could expect to see 5% cuts in emissions (on a 2010 baseline) by 2020. Since the scientists are saying we need 25 to 40 percent cuts on a 1990 baseline.
Well then, of course, we’re screwed
If it were not somehow not accepted as the basis for legislation, the whole problem would be kicked back to the Multi-Party Climate Change Committee, and the emissions would keep climbing while we kept perseverating.
Well then, of course, we’re screwed
After the next election, the new government keeps the legislation. It’s option one, a year or two hence. Well then, of course, we’re screwed. Or the new government overturns the legislation. Well then, of course, we’re screwed.
So, what do we do? We prepare for all four options. We don’t lie to ourselves that getting the legislation around a price on pollution is an adequate goal. Or even much of a stepping stone towards adequate goals. This problem is the result of over two hundred years of using the atmosphere as a sewer. We ain’t gonna fix it overnight.
PS “To be truly radical is to make hope possible rather than despair convincing.”
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