The MPCCC game of chicken continues…

From the front page of the Australian Financial Review 15 June
“The Gillard government is threatening to jettison negotiations with the Greens and key independents over a carbon price if it fails to secure compensation for the highest emitting coalmines and coal-fired generators.”

Uhuh. A credible threat? Gillard may be toast, but she’s toast sooner if the carbon price don’t get through. We will see if the Greens and indies blink…

Further down in the story, by Marcus Priest and Peter Kerr “Labor hauls Greens over the coals” we learn that modelling about job losses which was of course much-trumpetted by the Murdoch press may not have been quite so worthy of the acres of newsprint it got. It was done by ACIL-Tasman (creators of useful-to-the-rich factoids) for those cuddly Australian Coal Association types. According to the Fin, investment analysts questioned the modelling, saying it was “based upon no government assistance being provided.”
And the Grattan Institute said the report did not take into account the likelihood of offsetting rises in coal prices if there was a noticeable withdrawal of Australian production.
The Fin then quotes Grattan ceo John Daley thusly –
“The study is based on unreliable data, its findings are contrary to data published by coal producers themselves, the study ignores the dynamics between Australian production and global prices, and the study fails to mention that even if it is right, there is unlikely to be any net change in Australian unemployment.”

Doubtless Andrew Bolt is, as I type this, busily pointing the ratshittness of the ACIL-Tasman report to his legions of followers, and asking them to reflect on how much of what they read in the Murdoch press is pure spin and bollocks… … tumbleweed….

UPDATE 22 June: The Australian Coal Association has started its campaign. Rob Oakeshott is muttering about a carbon price of $15 or so.

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